After carrying out the ”macro” scan of the Italian national team in the part I of this analysis, where the global numbers and metrics in the whole 176 official games played in the last two decades have been detailed, it is time to go forward in this part II to the ”micro” scan. This would be a more interesting study to true football lovers since it tackles exclusively the metrics of the Squadra Azzurra compared to the heavyweights of the European continent, namely Spain, France, England, Germany and the Netherlands and helps to measure the Italian team with respect the the aforementioned teams. Enjoy!
Measuring The National Team’s Evolution
Facing European Heavyweights
Since Italy belongs to the heavyweight pool of national teams, it is now interesting to log out from the part I global metrics and compare graphically the performance’s evolution of the Squadra Azzurra between 2005 and June 2025 just against the European giants in official games, namely Spain, France, England, Germany, Netherlands and Portugal.
For the sake of brevity, graph related to Portugal confrontation is not presented, since Italy has just played two official games against Portugal in the last two decades realizing one loss, one draw, zero goals scored and one conceded. For the five remaining big teams, detailed comparison will be illustrated in bar charts. Upon what metric are those graphs established?
The power of a football team must involve at same time ball possession reflecting dominance and high skills to control and pass the ball accurately, besides the number of shots on target being the efficient consequence of the ball possession and certainly the number of goals scored among those shot. For this reason, a unified factor, termed power factor, grouping those three aspects together has been calculated for Italy and their opponents in all games played between them. It is in fact the sum of the ball possession in a game over the maximum ball possession among all games, the number of shots on target in a game over the maximum of balls shot on target and the number of goals scored in a game over the maximum of goals scored among all games. The coming charts will represent the evolution of the power factor of Italy and its opponent during each game played, symbolized by the date on which it has taken place.
Italy vs Spain
Italy has officially faced Spain 11 times since 2005, realized a single win besides 5 draws and 5 losses. In average, Italy dominated the ball by 41% versus 59% for Spain, shot in total 43 times on Spanish net succeeding in scoring 7 goals while Spain has taken 64 shots on target out of which 15 goals have been scored. The chart clearly states the permanent upper hand Spain is having over Italy, except this confrontation in round of 16 on June 27th, 2016 where even the power factor has remained below 2.
Italy vs France
Italy has officially faced France 6 times since 2005, realized 2 wins besides 2 draws and 2 losses. In average, Italy dominated the ball by 51% versus 49% for France, shot in total 26 times on French net succeeding in scoring 8 goals while France has taken 25 shots on target out of which 8 goals have been scored. Despite the overall Italian drop and the French boost in recent years, the confrontations between two sides have been always balanced with power factors scored by Italy reaching very satisfying values, slightly below 3 in the Nations League game in September 2024.
Italy vs England
Italy has officially faced England 7 times since 2005, realized 2 wins besides 3 draws and 2 losses. In average, Italy dominated the ball by 51% versus 49% for England, shot in total 42 times on English net succeeding in scoring 6 goals while England has taken 31 shots on target out of which 7 goals have been scored. Unfortunately for Italy, the 2 losses are the results of the last two confrontations with the chart showing a pronounced power factor for the Three Lions team. All in all, since the final game of UEFA Euro 2020, the power factor variation reveals that Italy has lost the upper hand it had against England before that year.
Italy vs Germany
Italy has officially faced Germany 7 times since 2005, realized 2 wins besides 3 draws and 2 losses. In average, Italy dominated the ball by 43% versus 57% for Germany, shot in total 35 times on German net succeeding in scoring 12 goals while Germany has taken 38 shots on target out of which 13 goals have been scored. Except the famous FIFA World Cup 2006 semi-final where Italy’s power factor of 2.3 is showing an Italian ‘’invasion’’, all the remaining values indicate the German dominance. Historically, Italy has been considered as the ‘’black beast’’ for Germany (termed Angstgegner by the Germans), however this has not been the since around one and half decades; the last Italian win dates on June 28th, 2012 although the Mannschaft has scored a better power factor (as per chart) in this game, indicating a turning point in dominance between both sides.
Italy vs Netherlands
Italy has officially faced The Netherlands 4 times since 2005, realized 2 wins besides 1 draw and 1 loss. In average, Italy dominated the ball by 51% versus 49% for Holland, shot in total 18 times on Dutch net succeeding in scoring 5 goals while The Netherlands has taken 20 shots on target out of which 6 goals have been scored. In line with the power factor chart below, all those numbers show a global balance between both sides.
All in all, the totality of the metrics exposed in part I and here above do not reflect a single trend or a unique evolving path of the Squadra Azzurra in the last 20 years. Consequently, the following thoughts may be concluded:
◘ Prior to UEFA Euro 2020, Italy was suffering a remarkable inconsistency, a mixture between glorious results (2006 and 2020 World Cup and European Cup titles, 2012 European runner-up, 37 unbeaten-games run with Mancini), and series of mini-crises (2010 and 2014 group stage exits, absence from world cup 2018 and 2022).
◘ After UEFA Euro 2020, the metrics of the Italian national team are seeming to be worrying for the Tifosi not only the local ones but the fans around the world. Since the time interval of 5 years is still not significant for a national team (that does not play games so frequently like clubs) one may not talk about a complete free fall, but one may say that it is the start of a path towards collapse. The alarm bell must be sounded as soon as possible.
◘ Except the impressive 3-1 win at Parc des Princes against France besides two narrow and difficult wins against England and Holland in UEFA Nations League, Italy is unfortunately not able to compete with any of the giant European football nations in the recent years.
Football fans in general and Italy fans in particular are still hoping for a ‘’remontada’’ on the international level. The entire football community is undoubtedly looking forward to loudly hear again the ‘’Fratelli d’Italia’’ anthem in USA, Mexico and Canada in 2026. More than three times!
ChroniBall XI
Where football meets data, stories, and everything in between
Enjoyed this piece? Follow us on X and Tiktok for more insights, visuals, and updates.
ChroniBall XI 
Leave a comment